Fewer homeowners falling behind on mortgage payments - latimes.com

We are likely seeing the beginning of the end of the unprecedented wave of mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures that started with the subprime defaults in early 2007 [and] continued with the meltdown of the California and Florida housing markets due to overbuilding and the weak loan underwriting that supported that overbuilding," Jay Brinkmann, the group's chief economist, said in a statement.

via latimes.com

It's good news that signs of improvement are becoming visible. Consumer confidence should begin to rise and take hold as the mole hill of positive economic data becomes a small skill hill. There are still risks out there, but it appears that the worst is behind us.

Businesses are cautiously looking forward to the future. We should see the total number of people employed rise even as the unemployment rate increases.

Why would the unemployment rate increase if the economy is recovering?

The way unemployment is measured, people become so discouraged that they stop looking for work and are no longer counted as being part of the labor force. If one is not considered part of the labor force one cannot be officially unemployed.

As the economy appears to be entering a recovery stage people regain the optimism that there are job opportunities to be had. These formerly discouraged people will then be counted as unemployed because they are looking for a job again. It would not surprise me if the unemployment rate jumped a bit in the coming months. Government hiring for the 2010 census may reduce or prevent the anticipated jump in the unemployment rate.

Unemployment will remain at elevated levels for the short and intermediate term. There are opportunities out there. It is advisable for people to start getting their resume and network in order. As Harvey Mackay would say, dig your well before you're thirsty. Starting preparation today will bring job offers sooner when the right job opportunity arrives. Be ready for that opportunity when it's right in front of you.

Posted via web from admore's posterous

Wal-Mart Spices Up Private Label - WSJ.com

Private label is growing in dollar sales in the United States. When consumers need to do some belt tightening they look to store brands (Typically lower priced, there are some premium PL brands that sell at higher price points).

A strong brand differentiation is a solid strategy to neutralize consumer private label substitution.

Posted via web from admore's posterous

The Economy 2007-2009 / GDP / Wall Street Journal

GDP has gone up two straight quarters, rising 2.2% in the third quarter after a year of contraction. In all of 2009, GDP fell 2.4%, the biggest drop for an entire year since 10.9% in 1946. GDP rose 0.4% in 2008 and 2.1% in 2007.

via online.wsj.com

Interesting to see that both 2007 and 2008 had positive GDP growth. The 2009 GDP drop seemed a lot deeper than 2.4%. The employment situation certainly was a lot worse for people that lost their jobs or had hours reduced.

Posted via web from admore's posterous

BLOOMBERG: "OPEC Defers Decision on Output Cut, Seeks $75 Oil "

OPEC has deferred a decision on reducing output quotas. Oil is in the low $50 range right now. This past summer it nearly hit $150 a barrel.

The United States, the largest economy in the world has entered a recession. Since the U.S. is such a large part of the world economy the rest of the world suffers as a result. The U.S. is a major consumer of other nations exports.

One of the best things to happen in the past four months has been the rapid decline in the price of gasoline. Oil is a major component in the price of gasoline. The reduction in gas prices has left more money in household budgets.

As oil falls, gasoline falls, consumers have more money to spend. As consumers resume spending the recession will slowly end and the economy will begin growing again.

Consumers need lower prices to restore their confidence in the economy and in their financial position. If OPEC were to cut output to increase prices in the short term, it is likely that the recession would linger for a longer period of time. At the same time many of the people calling for alternative energy sources will have the ears of more people. Investment in alternatives will likely increase thereby reducing demand for OPEC oil.

OPEC should hold output steady and allow prices to fall. This will get the world economy back up to speed faster. Output cuts only delay this recovery. Any production or quota reductions make OPEC look bad and gives those opposing them greater power, force and leverage. Taking action to increase prices is the wrong decision for OPEC to undertake.


What are your thoughts?



Sources for you to explore

Bloomberg: Energy Prices
Bloomberg: OPEC Defers Decision on Output Cut, Seeks $75 Oil